By Terry
Mitchell
How long do you think DVDs have around? 20
years? 10 years? Actually, they have only been around for about
seven years, but it seems like they have been around much longer.
Many of us can hardly remember life before DVDs. That can be
attributed to how rapidly we can become acclimated to some
innovations in electronics technology. I believe there are other
electronics technologies, either just getting ready to take off, not
widely available yet, or just around the corner, that are going to
become adopted just as quickly in the near future.
Once such
item is Voice over Internet Protocol, also known as VoIP. This
innovation renders the whole concept of long distance virtually
obsolete. It bypasses the traditional telephone company
infrastructure and delivers phone service over a broadband internet
connection to a regular phone. Similar to cell phones, this service
is purchased based on a fixed and/or unlimited number of minutes.
However, geographical divisions are generally made by country or
continent, rather than by local calling areas or area codes. For
example, a typical VoIP contract in the U.S. would stipulate
unlimited calling to North America and 300 monthly minutes for calls
to everywhere else. Unlike cell phone service, you are not charged
for incoming calls. With VoIP service, area codes are not much of an
issue, although you still must have one. However, some providers
offer plans in which you can select any area code in your country or
continent! The area code you choose mainly comes into play for those
with traditional phone service who make calls to you. If you pick a
California area code, for example, someone calling you from a
traditional phone line would be billed as if they called California,
even if they lived next door to you in New York.
One of the
major advantages of VoIP is that it is less expensive than
traditional phone service. Since it bypasses most of the phone
companies' infrastructure, it also bypasses many of the taxes
associated with it. So far, Congress has maintained a hands-off
approach when it comes to taxing VoIP services. Most of the major
phone companies are either now offering VoIP or plan to start by
mid-2005. However, there are some smaller companies that are
offering it at a much lower cost. Vonage (www.vonage.com) is a small
company that was one of the pioneers of VoIP. Lingo (www.lingo.com)
and Packet8 (www.packet8.com) are two other small companies offering
VoIP at a cut-rate price.
Another such technology is
Broadband over Power Line, or BPL. Already in wide use in many other
countries and currently being tested in the U.S., BPL is the
delivery of broadband internet service over traditional power lines.
A computer is connected to a special modem which is simply plugged
into an electrical outlet. This kind of service could prove useful
for those who cannot get traditional broadband services like cable
modem or Digital Subscriber Line (DSL), as almost everyone has
access to electricity now. Once refined, BPL could eventually prove
to be cheaper and faster than these more established services and
attract away some of their customers. By the way, be careful when
you’re discussing BPL and make sure people don’t think you’re
saying, “VPL.” Otherwise, you might encounter quite a bit of
snickering!
While we're on the subject of broadband internet
services, several technologies just around the corner are going to
make them much faster than they are today. The typical download
speeds for broadband ranges from 1.5 to 10 megabits per second
(mbps) today. Within the next year, speeds of 15-20 mbps will be
available to the average consumer. Then, shortly thereafter, speeds
of up to 25, 50, 75, and even 100 mbps will be available in some
places. In the not-so-distant future, speeds of 25-100 mbps is will
be quite common. "Fast TCP", which is currently being tested, has
the potential to turbo-charge all forms of currently available
broadband internet connections without requiring any infrastructure
upgrades. It will better utilize the way in which data is broken
down and put back together within traditional internet protocols.
All the major phone companies are currently in the process
of replacing their copper wires with high capacity fiber optic
lines. One example is Verizon's Fiber-to-the-Premises (FTTP)
initiative. Fiber optic lines will greatly increase the amount of
bandwidth that can be delivered. Fiber optics will allow phone
companies to deliver video, either via a cable TV-type platform or a
TV over Internet Protocol (TVIP) platform (see my October 7 column),
and faster DSL speeds. At the same time, the phone companies are
working with Texas Instruments to develop a new, more technically
efficient form of DSL, called Uni-DSL. Eventually, the current
internet as we know it will be scrapped and completely replaced with
a whole new internet called "Internet 2." This new internet is
expected to provide speeds of up to 6000 times faster than current
broadband connections!
Another technology item that you've
probably heard a lot about recently is digital television. Digital
TV uses a different wavelength than traditional analog TV and has a
much wider bandwidth. It also has a picture that never gets "snowy"
or "fuzzy." If the signal is not strong enough, you get no picture
at all, rather than the fuzzy picture you sometimes get with analog.
In order to receive digital signals over the airwaves, you must have
a digital TV set (one with a digital tuner inside) or an analog TV
with a set-top converter. Cable and satellite TV also use digital
formats, but unlike broadcaster signals, their non-High Definition
digital signals are automatically converted to a format an analog TV
can process, so a digital TV or converter is not needed. High
Definition Television formats, even on cable to satellite, require a
digital TV or a converter (more on High Definition later).
All broadcasters are now doing some broadcasts on their
digital channels in addition to their normal broadcasts on their
analog channels, but they were originally supposed to completely
convert over from analog signals to digital signals by the end of
2006. However, there is an exception that allows them to wait until
85% of the television sets in their market are digital. This could
take 10 years or more to happen. Congress and the FCC are now
looking at imposing a hard deadline on all broadcasters to convert
to digital signals by 2009. Once they all convert to digital
signals, their analog channels will taken back by the FCC and used
for other purposes like emergency signals.
High Definition
Television (HDTV) is one possible use of digital signals. HDTV uses
the entire digital bandwidth and is the crystal clear format you've
probably seen on TVs in electronics stores. It has no visible lines
on the screen. Someone once described it as being like "watching a
movie in the theater." Keep in mind that all HDTV is digital, but
not all digital is HDTV. Along those same lines, not all digital TVs
are HDTVs. Since digital TVs are very expensive and those with HDTV
capability are even more expensive, consumers really need to keep
this in mind.
The other possible use of digital signals is
channel compression, often referred to as "multicasting." Non-HDTV
programming does not utilize the entire width of a digital signal.
Therefore, it is possible to compress two or more channels of
programming into one digital signal. Satellite and cable operators
do this all the time with their non-HDTV digital channels, but this
process is transparent so many people don't realize it. Many
broadcasters plan to use their digital signals this way during times
when they are not being used for HDTV programming. For example, some
plan to air all news and all weather channels in addition to their
regular channels of programming.
TV recording and playback
technology is changing as well. DVD recorders, which debuted about
four years ago, have now become affordable to the average family. A
couple of years ago, they were priced above $1000, but now you can
get them for around $250, in many cases. The main sticking point now
with DVD recorders is that not all of them will record/play all
three of the competing formats: DVD-RAM, DVD-RW, DVD+RW. They will
have difficulty gaining wide acceptance from the public until one
format is settled on or all recorders can record and play all three
formats.
One the other hand, digital video recorders (DVRs)
and personal video recorders (PVRs), just two names for something
that is really the same thing, seem to be gaining quickly in
popularity. DVRs/PVRs utilize a hard drive to record programs,
without the need for discs or tapes. DVRs/PVRs with larger hard
drives are becoming available and less expensive all the time. These
devices can record one show while you are watching another. They can
record more than one show at a time. They allow you to watch the
part of a show that has already been recorded while the remainder of
that show is still being recorded. They allow for easy scanning,
searching, and skipping through recorded programs and even allow you
to skip commercials with one touch of a button. They allow you to
pause live programs while you answer the door or go to the restroom
and then pick up where you left off when you get back. With these
devices, recording can be automatic, i.e., you can program them to
automatically record every episode of your favorite shows, no matter
when they air. You can also have them automatically find and record
programs that match your interests. In addition, video can be
automatically downloaded to the device via a phone connection. TiVo,
the leading brand in the industry, has announced that it will be
teaming up with Netflix next year to allow downloading of movies on
demand via a broadband internet connection (see my October 7 column
for more details).
DVRs/PVRs are becoming so popular that
cable and satellite TV providers have begun including them as
add-ons to their receivers, either at no extra cost or for a small
additional monthly fee. About the only shortcoming of DVRs/PVRs is
the fact that they can't play pre-recorded DVDs or tapes, so you
would still need your DVD player or VCR if you rent or purchase
movies. However, hybrid devices which combine DVRs/PVRs with a DVD
player/recorder and/or VCR are now hitting the market. Those devices
would not only get rid of that problem but would also give you the
option of permanently transferring a recorded show/movie from a hard
drive to a recordable DVD.
Flat screen and flat panel TV
technology is also starting to boom. Many people are confused about
the difference between flat screen TVs and flat panel TVs. Flat
screen TVs use the old cathode ray tube (CRT) technology for their
picture tubes and are therefore bulky like traditional TV sets.
However, they are different from traditional TV sets in that they
have a flat screen. They deliver a picture that doesn't have as much
glare as traditional, more round screens. Also, the picture will
look the same to everyone in the room, no matter where they are
sitting. The picture on a traditional screen looks distorted when
viewing it from an angle.
Flat panel TVs, on the other hand,
utilize either liquid crystal display (LCD) or plasma technology
instead of the old CRT technology and are generally just a few
inches thick. Many of them can be hung on a wall. In fact, flat
panel TVs that are flatter than a credit card will be coming soon!
What's the difference between LCD and plasma? LCD is generally used
for flat panel TVs with a display of less than 30 inches and usually
has a brighter picture and better contrast than plasma. LCD is used
for flat panel computer monitors as well. Plasma is generally used
for flat panel TVs with a display of more than 30 inches and has a
better color range than LCD. Plasma is becoming more common as TVs
get bigger and flatter.
Although I'm not so sure about this
one, I will include "entertainment PCs" because of their tremendous
potential to revolutionize home entertainment. The concept of
"entertainment PCs" is being hailed right now by both Microsoft and
Intel. In fact, Microsoft has developed a special operating system
for them. They could be used as the hub for all home entertainment
and could enhance a family's experience of television, radio/music,
and internet and actually help to combine all of these into one.
They could be used to download content from the internet and play it
on a TV. They could provide such sophisticated TV recording
interfaces that VCRs, DVDs, and DVRs/PVRs could all eventually
become obsolete. In addition, they could be a better source for
photograph and home video editing and processing than regular PCs.
With that being said, I'm not so sure that people will be willing to
accept PCs as a source of home entertainment. Bill Gates begs to
differ and is willing to put his money where his mouth is.
Obviously, not all of the cutting edge electronics
technologies mentioned above will meet with great success. Some of
them might actually go the way of Betamax, digital audio tape (DAT),
and DIVX. However, many of them are sure to catch fire and become
such an intricate part of our everyday lives that we'll wonder how
we ever got along without them. Which ones will they be? Only time
will tell.
Terry Mitchell is a software engineer, freelance
writer, and trivia buff from Virginia, USA.
