Asset-backed
securities are created by pooling something of value, like
mortgages, barrels of oil, bushels of corn, piles of wheat, money,
or anything else that has value, and then selling shares of the
pools of assets. These are not, in themselves, bad things, but you
are betting that the value of the assets backing the securities will
go up. They do allow you to invest in things like mortgages with a
few thousand dollars instead of hundreds of thousands of
dollars.
Derivatives
are nothing more than a piece of paper, a contract, which promises
to buy or sell things at a certain price on a certain date. Unlike
asset-backed securities, stocks or bonds, derivatives are only as
valuable as the signature on the contract. When you buy or sell a
derivative you are buying or selling a promise to convey ownership
of the asset, rather than the asset itself. The sellers of the
pieces of paper do not actually even have ownership of the things
being sold. They are betting that when they have to convey
ownership, their buying price will be below their selling
price. The buyers of
the pieces of paper do not even have the money to buy the things
that will be sold to them. They are betting that when they have to
buy the assets, what they have to pay for them will be less than
what they can sell them for and they are also betting that they will
have the credit to buy the things temporarily while they resell
them.
Sometimes,
the betters bet that the prices will go up so they sell derivatives
guaranteeing the assets at higher prices than what they are
currently. The buyers of these derivatives bet that the actual
future value of the assets will be even higher. Sometimes, the
betters bet that the prices of the assets will go down so they sell
derivatives guaranteeing assets at a lower price than they currently
are. The buyers of these derivatives are betting that the prices of
the assets will actually go up.
These
bets, the derivatives, are mostly not regulated so, most of them are
made in secret. As a result, no one knows for sure who has bought
the bets and who has sold the bets. The buyers and sellers watch the
prices of the assets that they have agreed to sell or buy all day,
every day, constantly recalculating the amount of money that they
are going to make or lose. It’s like watching a basketball game with
your heart jumping with joy or sinking with despair with each made
or missed basket when you have millions of dollars bet on the
outcome.
While sub-prime
mortgage backed securities are getting all of the attention as the
current culprit, what really caused the problem was that derivatives
based on these securities were a really hot product. Wall Street and
bankers wanted more and more. As a result, they placed extreme
pressure on lenders to create more and more sub-prime mortgages so
that these could be converted into securities and more derivatives
could be created to be sold. Then, people who had been approved for
loans started defaulting and everyone started getting stuck with
their bets.
When
something happens like the burst of the housing bubble, all the
betters get nervous that the dropping home prices and foreclosures
that are killing the value of mortgage backed securities will
have an adverse effect on other assets and they immediately start
trying to recover their perceived future losses by betting that the
value of everything will go down. This betting causes the actual
price of the stock sold to go down along with the value of the
companies that the stock represents. When a company’s value goes
down, its lines of credit get reduced or cancelled. It is no longer
able to buy inventory or make payroll even though it may be very
profitable. A company’s profits have normally been extended to its
customers in the form of credit. So, unless the company is able to
get its customers to pay their bills ahead of time, the company has
to close. Many times the customers are also companies and they have
used the credit to finance their customers so, they don’t have the
money to pay.
Since
the derivatives have been sold and purchased in secret, the banks
are not even willing to loan each other money because the borrowing
bank may have bet to much with derivatives and might go out of
business. If banks can’t borrow money, they can’t loan money. Banks
get so nervous that they are not even willing to loan you money
because they start to imagine that you may be overextended, may
overextend yourself, might lose your job, or commit suicide over the
economic crisis. Besides, the banks might need the money before this
is over, so they hoard it. If you can’t borrow money, you can’t buy
things like houses, cars, furniture, airplane trips, or whatever
else you would use your credit cards for. This means that all of the
companies that make or sell these things can’t sell them and the
economy’s downward spiral quickens.
In the saga that is currently unfolding, the
collapse of the housing market and value of mortgage backed
securities is not even the tip of the iceberg. This is a problem that could
be managed solely by the banks. The problem is that the total amount
of derivatives that have been sold, bets that have been placed,
worldwide to sell assets is around $520 trillion. The value of all
the GDPs, real estate, and company stocks in the world is around
$225 trillion. Bankers and Wall Street have agreed to sell the world
for over twice what it is worth and they don't even have the money
to buy the world in the first place. Just buying and selling the the
entire world wasn't enough for them. They had to have more. They
know this and they are very nervous now that the mortgage crisis has
exposed their greedy gambling.
$700
billion given to the banks is not going to fix this. $10 trillion
given to the banks is not going to fix this. All of this money just
devalues the currency and makes things worse. A meeting is not going
to fix this. Neither Obama nor McCain will fix this. This is why the
bank bailout was just an exercise in futility and why your Congress
members and Senators should have listened to you when you told them
not to vote for the bill. They just wasted your money, your
children’s money, and your grandchildren’s money and you and your
country are very likely to need this money before this is over. If
Congress and the Senate represented you and cared about the well
being of the country instead of the banks, they would have protected
you and the economic well being of the country, by passing a
law that made derivatives illegal long ago. Instead they are busy
trying to accomodate banking greed in hopes of getting donations to
their campaigns.
"We
view them as time bombs both for the parties that deal in them and
the economic system .. In our view ... derivatives are financial
weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now
latent, are potentially lethal." - Warren Buffett -
2003